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Analysts: Xbox One to overtake PS4 next year

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overtaking

The sudden, unexpected dumping of Kinect will undoubtedly have big consequences on this silly console war. How big a consequence? Some analysts think the Xbox One is now poised to overtake the PlayStation 4 in sales next year.

In the US, that is. It’s a region that’s favoured Microsoft’s platform for the past 8 or so years.

“This change will be enough to push the Xbox One installed base higher than PS4 in the U.S. and Canada in 2015 rather than 2016,” says IDC research manager Lewis Ward.

It kind of reminds me of Microsoft’s evolution on Windows and IE. The initial design needs some serious help (i.e., last summer’s DRM ‘Xbox 180’) and then improves to point of being a serious contender (this Kinect unbundling) and then vies for market share dominance .

He does however, believe that the PlayStation 4 will have the global sales advantage until 2016 at least. It’s a sentiment echoed by analyst Billy Pidgeon.

“This is a good competitive move for Microsoft. Price is an important factor at this point in the console cycle and in the consumer market, and Kinect lacks strong value for most gamers. Xbox One without Kinect should sell strongly at $399 and could out-perform PS4 at the same price on a month to month basis, although I think market share competition between Xbox One and PS4 will remain tight for most of the cycle.”

RW Baird analyst Colin Sebastian believes, obviously, that the lower price will mean significantly higher sales.

“We note the Xbox One pricing action is early, by historical standards, for a relatively new video game console. However, we estimate that price cuts on the Xbox 360 in August 2007 and September 2008 each drove more than 100k incremental monthly unit sales,” he said

For most consumers – the sort who don’t frequent video game websites and don;t pay attention to specs – their purchasing decisions come down to two factors; pricing and games. The price is finally right for the Xbox One. In the US, I can actually see the Xbox One “winning,” once the new Halo and Gears of War games are out.

For both companies, it’s now solely up to the games (and marketing budgets!), making this year’s E3 a rather important one for both camps.

Last Updated: May 14, 2014

110 Comments

  1. Matewis Jubilai

    May 14, 2014 at 13:34

    NOT if I have anything to say about it because I am going to buy a Wii U

    Reply

    • RinceBroken

      May 14, 2014 at 13:51

      Self destructive? 🙂

      Reply

      • Matewis Jubilai

        May 14, 2014 at 13:58

        🙂 I want to catch up on all the great Nintendo games that I missed being an exclusive pc gamer, and the console has some impressive backwards compatibility.

        Reply

        • Viking Of Science

          May 14, 2014 at 14:03

          It really does, Wii Disc based compatibility, and the Virtual Console for many games from the NES to the Gamecube era…. It’s a machine for Nintendo fans.

          Reply

    • zeemonkeyman

      May 14, 2014 at 14:23

      Make sure to get tropical freeze and super mario world with it, soooo damn good!

      Reply

  2. Alien Emperor Trevor

    May 14, 2014 at 13:38

    lol @ tags. Well that is pretty much where most of this stuff is pulled from.

    Reply

  3. Umar Returns

    May 14, 2014 at 13:41

    Sony needs to bring the exclusives now…In all honesty, Xbox has the stronger brand of exclusives, not necessarily the better games, but PS at the moment just has Uncharted, whereas MS has Gears,Halo and Forza, which are major console pushers as the general populace only cares about vroom vroom and pew pew

    Reply

    • Admiral Chief in Space

      May 14, 2014 at 13:46

      Exclusives, I hate that word

      Reply

      • Jedi JJ

        May 14, 2014 at 13:47

        I’m sure you just hate it when us pc folk can get something the console guys can’t. 😉

        Reply

        • Alien Emperor Trevor

          May 14, 2014 at 13:51

          I do. I believe everyone is entitled to self-respect.

          Reply

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 13:57

            0-O Who are you and what have you done with Trevor?!

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 13:57

            That’s how he lures in his prey.

          • Alien Emperor Trevor

            May 14, 2014 at 14:05

            GOT ONE!

      • Umar Returns

        May 14, 2014 at 13:51

        If there were no exclusives, there would be no competition. It would be the worse thing for gamers

        Reply

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 13:54

          But genres still have competing titles like CODfish and Battlefield.
          Forza and GT.
          Colonial Marines and Minesweeper.

          Reply

          • Umar Returns

            May 14, 2014 at 13:57

            Colonial Marines and Minesweeper. Do they compete?? lol

      • Hammersteyn

        May 14, 2014 at 13:51

        I think you mean console exclusives. The one that never come to PC 😛

        Reply

        • RinceBroken

          May 14, 2014 at 13:52

          Ouch 🙂

          Reply

        • Umar Returns

          May 14, 2014 at 13:52

          BOOM!

          Reply

        • Norm the Horrible

          May 14, 2014 at 13:54

          HEADSHOT!

          Reply

        • Admiral Chief in Space

          May 14, 2014 at 14:03

          No I mean in general, I think its a cancer

          Reply

          • Hammersteyn

            May 14, 2014 at 14:04

            It’s sure is, why can’t I have Steam games on my PS4?

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:05

            Do you really want a pc gamer to answer that? Do you realise what you’re inciting?

          • Hammersteyn

            May 14, 2014 at 14:17

            hehehe

          • Admiral Chief in Space

            May 14, 2014 at 14:06

            Cuz you can’t snipe with a controller

          • Hammersteyn

            May 14, 2014 at 14:16

            makes sense

          • zeemonkeyman

            May 14, 2014 at 14:26

            You obviously never had your head shot off the split second you popped it out in Gears of war, over and over again….I agree that mouse and keyboard is more precise but some dudes can get amazingly proficient with a controller.

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 14:03

          I will neither confirm or deny your statement.

          Reply

          • Hammersteyn

            May 14, 2014 at 14:03

            hahaha

        • Matewis Jubilai

          May 14, 2014 at 14:12

          Normally being reminded of this reality would have depressed me a little bit, but these days I don’t care! Why? Because there is a glimmer of hope that RDR might actually be coming to the PC! =’D

          Reply

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:13

            The sad part comes when they try to sell a four year old game to us at full price. I’m not biting.

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 14:15

            What was that? BWAHAHAH!

          • Matewis Jubilai

            May 14, 2014 at 14:18

            Think of it this way : we’re all going to buy it to show them they made a mistake in not releasing it on the PC sooner. Although admittedly the argument could sway both ways 😛 Nevertheless its a cowboy gta with mouse look 😀 (the chief reason why I don’t want to play gta on a console) I won’t be able to resist in any case 😛

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:19

            I played it on my PS. Stopped after a short while because I didn’t like playing with a controller. But I definitely like it and will buy it. But only when it’s on special one day.

          • Hammersteyn

            May 14, 2014 at 14:27

            Yeah, to bad all it takes is almost the time period from one Soccer World Cup to the next

          • Matewis Jubilai

            May 14, 2014 at 14:33

            Don’t ask me why but your comment just gave me an idea : I’m going to fix a fan to my desk the day I buy the game. Then whenever I gallop with my horse I am going to switch on the fan at the multiplug under my desk with my big toe.

          • Hammersteyn

            May 14, 2014 at 14:39

            hahahaha

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:46

            Remember to sprinkle sand in front of it for extra realism.

          • Matewis Jubilai

            May 14, 2014 at 14:48

            If I’m going for realism I’d better sprinkle some bugs in front of it 🙂

      • FoxOneZA

        May 14, 2014 at 13:53

        I don’t see the problem with exclusives when you got consoles going R2k right now that will play those games for you.

        Reply

      • Devourer of Small Bunnies

        May 14, 2014 at 14:07

        you and i both.

        Reply

    • bf4ever

      May 14, 2014 at 20:29

      Lets not forget titanfall and sunset overdrive. Xbox One is making massive improvements on all fronts and the operating system, apps and definately the games are better than ps4. And i have to be honest…i find the kinect do be awesome…kinect sports rivals is fantastic. I have been playing my buddies xbox quite a bit lately and enjoy it more than my ps4. I may tradein for xbox one…the games are simply more fun.

      Reply

  4. Jedi JJ

    May 14, 2014 at 13:46

    Exclusives
    That’s all it is. Microsoft can thank their stars they still have those exclusives.

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      May 14, 2014 at 13:51

      Titanfall 2 is releasing everywhere though

      Reply

      • Jedi JJ

        May 14, 2014 at 13:55

        I don’t want Titanfall though. 😉

        Reply

        • Hammersteyn

          May 14, 2014 at 13:58

          Me neither but it’s just one more exclusive that XBOX doesn’t have.

          Reply

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 13:58

            Quite. Take that Xbone!
            Now if only someone other than EA could do this I’d actually buy the game.

  5. FoxOneZA

    May 14, 2014 at 13:48

    The rumored upcoming exclusives for Xbox One makes the console a rather tasty one. More Ryse, GoW, Halo, Forza Horizon and someone mentioned Battletoads, will push the console in the right direction. Also, as Geoff pointed out, it will come to pricing of games.

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      May 14, 2014 at 13:51

      I’d buy an XBOX for Battle Toads

      Reply

  6. eXpZA

    May 14, 2014 at 13:48

    Exclusives is one thing, but exclusive content also makes a big difference. Land some exclusive feature for the next FIFA game, and sell tonnes more.

    Reply

    • Jedi JJ

      May 14, 2014 at 13:49

      So people are still playing this FIFA thing? 😛

      Reply

      • Hammersteyn

        May 14, 2014 at 13:51

        Hahaha you wouldn’t believe though.

        Reply

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 13:55

          I suppose fratboys need entertainment too. Trololololo

          Reply

      • Matewis Jubilai

        May 14, 2014 at 14:10

        FIFA I can sort of understand but what completely defies my comprehension are people playing football manager. Sport games can be fun : I remember in one of the earlier rugby games I’d pick South Africa to play against Uruguay. Then I’d have my fastest springbok run doughnuts around the field and watch the entire Uruguay national rugby team hopelessly trying to catch him 😛

        Reply

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 14:13

          It’s like a strategy game.
          Only not fun.
          To each his own I suppose. I’m personally not a huge fan of management games.

          Reply

          • Matewis Jubilai

            May 14, 2014 at 14:20

            I like management games sometimes, but if I want to manage a team, I’ll play Jagged Alliance 2 with the 1.13 mod thank you very much. (or DOW2)

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:21

            Ah man. Love me some JA

    • McBeano0

      May 14, 2014 at 14:01

      As in Stevie G – Slippy G DLC?

      Reply

  7. InsanityFlea

    May 14, 2014 at 13:51

    well if that makes it cheaper than the PS4, yes, it will. It’s all about price to 80% of the market.

    Reply

    • Sandile Mnguni

      May 14, 2014 at 16:00

      It doesn’t. They will both be $399 and I suspect Sony will just lower the PS4 price around November to $349 or something thereabout to ward off a drop in sales.

      Reply

      • InsanityFlea

        May 14, 2014 at 16:33

        Well epic fail then 🙂

        Reply

  8. RinceBroken

    May 14, 2014 at 13:52

    It’s too late in the game. People have already bought the console they want (if they wanted an Xbox One they would have one WITH Kinect already) and the rest will have a PS4. Not to mention marketing? Well we all know how well MS has done with that so far.

    Reply

    • Alien Emperor Trevor

      May 14, 2014 at 13:55

      But what if they release it in a different colour?

      Reply

      • RinceBroken

        May 14, 2014 at 13:55

        OMG PINK!

        Reply

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 13:57

          Imagine having a gaming platform that you can put together yourself, exactly the way you like it.
          That’s a world I’d like to live in 😉

          Reply

          • Viking Of Science

            May 14, 2014 at 14:01

            That sounds Magical…

          • Alien Emperor Trevor

            May 14, 2014 at 14:03

            lulz

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 14:08

            I just want one I can turn on and play 😛

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:08

            You’re talking about a console now, right?

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 14:14

            Yeah you know, the machines you plug directly into a monitor and don’t need to install an OS on 😛 You PC Masterbaters are WAY too easy! BWAHAHAH!

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:24

            Well us pc folk like to customize, put on whatever OS we want, put on all kinds of software. MOD our games. You know, things that require using your brain. 😉

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 14:33

            Which also explains why you all have backlogs of games from the 80’s RUNS

          • Jedi JJ

            May 14, 2014 at 14:34

            Hey!
            My brain was functioning pretty well through the eighties. It’s the early 2000s when it started going downhill.

          • Alien Emperor Trevor

            May 14, 2014 at 14:51

            Should have asked him how he’s enjoying his next-gen gaming. Opportunity missed heh.

          • Alien Emperor Trevor

            May 14, 2014 at 14:08

            and that’s why you’re #foreverSP

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 14:13

            This fanboy I know said asked me ‘do you want to be the pot or the kettle’ earlier this week. I think that works rather well now too 😛

          • Alien Emperor Trevor

            May 14, 2014 at 14:17

            Said asked? Is that a rhetorical question? 😉

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 14:00

          OMG PINK sounds like an actual type of colour.

          Reply

          • RinceBroken

            May 14, 2014 at 14:02

            It is 0-O

    • McBeanoO

      May 14, 2014 at 14:05

      Yep, console sales will stand still from this day onwards. Spoken like a true fanboy that will never buy any console.

      Reply

  9. RinceBroken

    May 14, 2014 at 13:55

    Yeah, reality is likely to follow these analysts as the kinect was to follow the actual player http://www.nastyhobbit.org/data/media/4/kinetic-fail-2.gif

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      May 14, 2014 at 14:03

      Looks like another canceled Star Was game

      Reply

      • RinceBroken

        May 14, 2014 at 14:04

        Question is though, who is playing whom?!

        Reply

        • Alien Emperor Trevor

          May 14, 2014 at 14:05

          And can he play Crysis?

          Reply

    • Alien Emperor Trevor

      May 14, 2014 at 14:06

      Xbox get to da choppa!

      Invalid command.

      Reply

      • RinceBroken

        May 14, 2014 at 14:17

        Hahaha 🙂

        Reply

      • Jedi JJ

        May 14, 2014 at 14:24

        Well, that was disappointing.

        Reply

  10. Mark Treloar

    May 14, 2014 at 13:57

    Didn’t Microsoft say they would never sell the Xbone without the Kinect?

    Reply

    • Alien Emperor Trevor

      May 14, 2014 at 14:07

      They’ve said a lot of things.

      Reply

      • Mark Treloar

        May 14, 2014 at 14:12

        Well with all the 180’s they have done they may have just reached 1080.

        Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      May 14, 2014 at 14:30

      yep

      Reply

  11. KingKappie

    May 14, 2014 at 14:04

    I have one word for Microsoft: No

    Reply

    • Jedi JJ

      May 14, 2014 at 14:04

      *echoes “no”*

      Reply

    • Alien Emperor Trevor

      May 14, 2014 at 14:14

      Reply

      • KingKappie

        May 14, 2014 at 14:20

        I do love my PS4

        Reply

        • Jedi JJ

          May 14, 2014 at 14:25

          I’m not a console gamer, but my support is 100% behind the PS4 as far as the consoles go.

          Reply

  12. Devourer of Small Bunnies

    May 14, 2014 at 14:06

    I wonder if Mr Analyst realises that most consumers prefer not to be lied to on a continuous basis. On that note alone I think he’s talking out his ass. Considering one of the main reasons why so many people climbed the PS band wagon was that a GAMES console was able to play GAMES. Now another 180 by ms (that makes its what now, 1440’degrees?) and all of a sudden its going to be the swan song? No man. Theres no indication that there will be an over turn in power, perhaps to an extent in the US but globally? Not a fucking chance.

    Reply

    • Jedi JJ

      May 14, 2014 at 14:07

      Mr Analyst works with statistics and samples.
      He and Mr Behaviour are not good friends.
      😉

      Reply

      • Devourer of Small Bunnies

        May 14, 2014 at 15:52

        Sure, but trends === behaviour + economics. Whether its a simple calc or not the pure matter of the fact is that you cant separate your markets grievances and their willingness to purchase a product from supposed economic viability just because theyve modified and existing product set. Its wildly inconclusive and irresponsible. Its just not how statistics work.

        No I lie. Thats how you produce shitty numbers and falsified data. Which is also why for the most part I ignore numbers that arent provided through a reliable source, that can be verified independently (at least to an extent). Some so called “analyst” has to drop his 2c, go for it be my guest. I just think his analysis is wrong and has not used the correct data models producing this claim. And its a pretty big claim at that considering the rollout out plan for MS has got to be one of the worst ever seen in gaming hardware history.

        Reply

    • McBeanoO

      May 14, 2014 at 14:23

      Speaking about being lied to, the whole Watch Dogs resolution gate saga shows that the PS4 ain’t cutting it either so if you are a previous gen Xbox owner, there’s really no need to dump those hefty exclusives and move over to the PS side.

      Reply

      • Devourer of Small Bunnies

        May 14, 2014 at 15:43

        Cant disagree with you either, both co’s need to really start paying attention to their marketing strats as it seems to do more harm than good every time either of these players open their mouths.

        Reply

  13. oVg Errorist

    May 14, 2014 at 14:26

    Meanwhile in the land of the rising sun.

    Reply

    • Jedi JJ

      May 14, 2014 at 14:28

      I call BS. I don’t see any octopi.

      Reply

      • oVg Errorist

        May 14, 2014 at 14:32

        They are all working in Foxconn.

        Reply

  14. MakeItLegal

    May 14, 2014 at 14:58

    they dropped kinect ? when ?

    Reply

  15. Brian Murphy

    May 14, 2014 at 15:40

    http://i1014.photobucket.com/albums/af263/pburgardt/marketshare_zps429162de.gif

    You do realize there’s not really any reason to think this is true, right? The salesleader changed at least twice (three times with the snes to PS1 transition) And the 360 barely squeaked out a win. And that was with a year head start and a MASSIVE price difference. I think the X1 will now do much healthier numbers…but, history doesn’t tell us that this is a slam dunk by any means.

    Reply

  16. Andrew Arnold

    May 14, 2014 at 16:23

    I don’t know about anyone else, but I NEVER have liked the XBOX controller. I like the symmetry of the thumb sticks on the PS controller. The off-kilter thumb sticks of the XBOX controller always felt unnatural to me and more of a “we have to be different” decision than a intuitive control layout choice. I’ve never liked XBOX because of that.

    Reply

  17. Tauriq Moosa

    May 15, 2014 at 09:01

    I hope this means great things for Microsoft and I hope their E3 shows of lovely, lovely games – because, as a PS4 owner, that means Sony not being complacent and lazy (not that they are, but stiff competition is good). I still have no interest in Xbox One due to not watching live TV, sports, and having shitty Internet, and not seeing any point in the Kinect (also never been a fan of Xbox exclusives and been a long time Naughty Dog fan). Sony is right for me – which says nothing about whether it’s better overall, has better games, etc.

    This idea that we can’t love and enjoy without taking a dump on others is one of the worst aspects of gaming culture. And I wish a quick death for the console war narrative.

    Reply

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