Home Gaming Nintendo forecasts huge Wii U sales, Pachter thinks they’re nuts

Nintendo forecasts huge Wii U sales, Pachter thinks they’re nuts

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I’ll be standing in the queue for Nintendo’s new Wii U on day 1 – and Nintendo’s hoping there’ll be millions of other people like me rushing up to grab their new console.

They’re so confident, that they’re expecting to have have sold through 5.5 million of the things by the end of March next year. that’s a pretty neutral estimate – neither conservative or particularly hopeful. I certainly think it’s a reachable target. Somewhat less realistic is their target for Software sales; Nintendo hopes to have sold 24 million units of software by the end of the launch period.

“Guidance for 24 million Wii U software units in FY:13 implies an attach rate of over four games, which we view as highly unrealistic given pricing and release slate,” said Pachter about Nintendo’s hopes.

He believes the Wii U will have a tough start against other shiny new tech like the iPad Mini, the Kindle Fire and maybe even windows RT tablets (but probably not). He believes the Wii U has a fantastic launch line-up – but doesn’t believe the attach rate will be as high as Nintendo hopes.

“The launch schedule is better than we had initially expected, with notable launch day titles including Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Black Ops II, EA Sports’ FIFA Soccer 13, Nintendo’s New Super Mario Bros. U and Nintendo Land, and Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed III and ZombiU,” he said.

“However, demand will probably wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 5 – 6 million units, negatively impacting long-term hardware and software sales as well.”

As much faith as I have in Nintendo and the Wii U, I have to agree with him. I think an attach rate of over 4 is pretty unrealistic, given the economic climate. I think most early adopters will be happy to pick up Nintendo Land, Mario and possibly Zombie U – and leave it at that for a few months.

Last Updated: October 25, 2012

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