Say what you will about Call of Duty, but there is no denying that each game sells stupidly well without fail. The franchise has been on a gradual decline though, and that trend may be no different this year. Advanced Warfare is expected to sell less than previous title entries.
This is according to pre-order analysis conducted by Cowen and Company.They expect Advanced Warfare to sell 40% less than Ghosts, and 70% less than Black Ops 2 which was released the year before. The analysis stems from Amazon pre-order figures (Joystiq via GamesIndustry.biz). It echoes similar sentiment from other analysts, who feel the franchise is loosening its grasp on gamers.
“Advanced Warfare is now pacing almost 40 per cent behind last year’s Ghosts (vs. 50 per cent last week) and almost 70 per cent behind 2012’s Black Ops 2 (vs. 80 per cent last week). We continue to believe CoD will be down meaningfully vs. last year. With the franchise facing two consecutive significant year on year declines in sales, we think it is prudent to assume it has peaked.”
Sounds like doom and gloom, except that even with the predicted sharp decline, Advanced Warfare is still expected topple Destiny. Remember, Destiny is the most pre-ordered game in history.
“Activision’s Destiny continues to track well post-launch, with the game’s Amazon rankings actually up vs. two weeks ago. We think sales are likely to slowdown over the next weeks as a spate of new games hit the market, but we would not be surprised to see a reacceleration in December once the first DLC The Dark Below is released. We continue to expect first year (12-month) unit sales of 12-13MM units. While we now think it is less likely that Destiny will outsell Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, if Destiny enjoys stronger legs and reaches 15MM+ units, we believe it could still happen (due in part to our concerns about CoD).”
I really do think that Advanced Warfare will be a breath of fresh air for the franchise. Remember, all these stats are merely adopted from pre-order figures. If the game is any good, I personally expect its sales to surpass that of Ghosts at least, even if it does take a few months or a year to achieve that.