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Here’s what analysts say about GTA V

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Last night Rockstar put up the trailer they promised when they first teased Grand Theft Auto V’s announcement. The trailer’s causing a stir on the internet, with gaming communities abuzz with dissections of the trailer, piecing together subtle clues found in the video to better guess what we might expect from the game when it does release.

The professional guessers, the analysts who’re paid to totally make stuff up have been hard at work too, and here’s what they believe GTA V will do in terms of sales and release date.

Everyone’s favourite analyst, Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter  reckons the game will be coming sooner than we expect; the middle of next year. “They want to steal everyone’s attention, and will do so with a launch in front of E3,” he said to IndustryGamers. Impressed by the trailer, he says "I think the LA setting is interesting, and the scope was large (ocean, desert, mountains, vineyards, city), so they revealed a pretty huge game. The graphics looked like a movie, so they won’t disappoint there. I thought the story reveal (older family man being dragged back into the gang) was also interesting, suggesting the ‘one last heist’ story line and adding the element of family to make the story more compelling." Understating the obvious, he believes the game will do “pretty well.”

The National Alliance Capital Markets’ Mike Hickey agrees with Pachter. “We believe Rockstar Games is modeling a 4 to 6 month marketing window for their upcoming GTA V release, suggesting a Summer ’12 launch period," he said.

I’m not as convinced of a release near the middle of next, but what do I know? It just seems to soon after the release of Rockstar’s Max Payne 3, but EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich  believes Rockstar to be just the sort to go against the grain."Rockstar North is one of the most talented developers in our industry. When they speak, everyone listens… Rockstar does what they want and when they want to."  He predicts bumper sales for the next game – largely because of the increased user base for current gen consoles. “Grand Theft Auto V should sell well over 24 million units worldwide in its first year. Given the anticipation for the release, Grand Theft Auto V has the potential to shatter first day and first week sales records that are currently held by Call of Duty: Black Ops,” he predicted to GameInformer.

What do you think? When will see GTA V? I promised myself, after the miserable experience I had with GTA IV, that I wouldn’t buy in to the hype again – but that trailer, and its fantastic but faux re-creation of L.A has me excited. The way they’ve cheekily released the trailer now, in the midst of the year’s biggest releases shows their cocky confidence. It’s as if they’re saying “Listen, I know there’s some big games coming, but THIS is what you should be paying attention to.”

Damn you, Rockstar!





Last Updated: November 3, 2011

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