So Darryn is away testing the wares of New York City and that leaves the team a little short-handed so forgive me for absolutely stealing this idea from neogaf but I thought it was an interesting thread.
The best selling console of all time is still the PlayStation 2 with over 150 million units sold* and since the new consoles now cost a ton more than that I think it would be overly optimistic to think any of the current batch could take its crown.
Currently the PS3 is sitting at total sales of 82 million ahead of the Xbox 360 which has 81 million but way behind the Wii which sold 101 million.
However this generation has started quicker than the last by some margin so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it beat them, even though most of Neogaf disagrees.
Gavin:
Here are my predictions for the sales figures by the time the next generation rolls around in 2020
- PlayStation 4 -110 million
- Xbox One – 90 million
- Wii U – 15 million (I expect the Wii U to be replaced in the next two years)
Geoff:
While the new consoles have great momentum right now, I don’t believe it’ll continue unabated. In fact, I think very many of last generation’s console gamers have become this generation’s PC gamers. I’ve seen more and more people transition to PC gaming, thanks to the relative high cost of the new consoles. Of course, when price drops do start happening, more people will be picking them up. and though the PlayStation 4 feels more like a successor to the PlayStation 2 than the 3 did, I’m not convinced it’ll reach nearly as high a sales total. Why? This gen is the first in my mind where consumers can pick up a comparable PC for a comparable price close to launch – and PC gaming, largely thanks to steam and the like, has matured to a point where fiddling with everything isn’t really necessary. I do, however, agree with Gavin that in about two years time, we’ll be seeing new hardware from Nintendo.
So here are my completely made up, pulled from my starfish predictions for the generation if it lasts for just 6 years.
- PlayStation 4 – 79 Million
- Xbox One – 62 Million
- Wii U – 17 Million
Zoe:
I’ve got to say that I’m in between these two opinions. Sure, I agree with Geoff that consoles have been overtaken by PC gamers. Price is a key thing, as is the fact that PC gaming doesn’t require nearly as much technical know-how or tinkering that it used to. There are enough companies that can build you a high-end gaming PC – a machine that will pay for itself when you considering its multi-use functionality and low cost of PC games (thank you Steam sales). That said, console gamers are still a thing – people still want to sit on the couch with a controller and consume entertainment. This brings me to the point that I think we as “core gamers” often forget: the new generation of consoles are targeted at taking over our living rooms. This means that families will be more likely to buy a PS4 or Xbox One to use as a Netflix device that also plays games, rather than maybe picking up a dedicated streaming device like Apple TV. Additionally, while the consoles are expensive, people are more accustomed to forking out money for shiny new tech – if they can spend that much on an iPad or smart phone, why not on a console?
So, here are my predictions that are based on nothing women’s intuition. Oh, and I’m with the guys – the Wii U will be replaced soon.
- PlayStation 4 – 100 million
- Xbox One – 85 million
- Wii U – 20 million
That is of course if this generation is a 6 year cycle with the last generation lasting 8 years it could quite easily do the same or if the virtual reality becomes a reality (sorry) then it could be a short sprint to 2016 and a new roll out then.
My predictions are on the high side compared to most of Gaf but I think once the price drops and these consoles are pushed into the emerging markets the West will suddenly realise how many people exist on the planet that don’t live in Europe and America.
This could make for some interesting games, Sing Star Bollywood anyone? – but it will be great for the industry as a whole.
*All quoted figures are from vgchartz.com
Last Updated: April 23, 2014
Mark Treloar
April 23, 2014 at 12:35
Tooo Many?
oVg Errorist
April 23, 2014 at 12:36
Yet will the AAA games sales still suffer by not breaking 5million sales?
Like Tomb Raider and many others last year considering the PS3 and 360 sales were 140million units combined.
Remember, the production costs and time have doubled.
Viking Of Science
April 23, 2014 at 12:40
I honestly think the AAA industry is headed for a major shift, if not a full crash, Indie is still on the rise, and with games like *shudder* Minecraft Selling a Metric F***ton, and has infinite play time (or so I hear) People are expecting More from AAA games, at their price point. The whole system is wholly unsustainable….
oVg Errorist
April 23, 2014 at 12:46
Cliffy B? what are you doing on this site? I thought you wanted to punch Gavin the last time you spoke to him? 😛
Viking Of Science
April 23, 2014 at 12:49
Totes forgot Cliffy B and I share a body there…. 😛 But I stand by my point. Personal example: Broforce, $15 game, Lots of fun, challenge, and I’ve sank more hours into the brototype than I care to admit, Any AAA game of 2011-2013, one playthrough, gathers dust.
Mossel
April 23, 2014 at 12:48
I love the term metric fuckton. It just makes it sound so sciency. Not just any fuckton, but a metric one. Not an imperial fuckton, a metric one.
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:05
There’s a good reason for that. Imperial fucktons are for my personal use only.
oVg Errorist
April 23, 2014 at 13:21
And Americans.
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:22
I don’t want them any more.
Mossel
April 23, 2014 at 13:31
And then it raises serious questions, like: How many imperial fucktons in a metric fuckton?
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:42
However many I say. It’s good to be the Emperor 😀
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 13:43
42
Mossel
April 23, 2014 at 13:44
I knew it! Metric is always better.
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:00
They spend millions on marketing & publisher exec salaries. That’s where it’s spiraling out of control.
oVg Errorist
April 23, 2014 at 13:25
“I need to get the milk”
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:17
Funny thing is, it’s cliffy who is saying that the cost of games is fine…
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:19
And his opinion wouldn’t be biased. Right guys? Guys?
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:30
Sorry Trevor, I can’t hear you over the revving of my car!
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:42
I can’t hear YOU over the imaginary revving of my new car that I get in two hours ;P
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:44
That was a good play there by me! No appreciation 🙁 And nice one, we’ll see it on Sat, when you drive us home 😛
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 13:48
What are you getting?
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 14:15
2013 Hyundai i20 1.4 Fluid manual.
I can probably recite that in my sleep after all the times I’ve repeated it to insurance agents.
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 14:24
But why?
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 14:29
Why what? It’s a nice little car.
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 14:42
Always thought you’d be rollin’ in a beetle
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 12:37
42
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:40
LOL!
Mossel
April 23, 2014 at 12:46
I’m no expert, but I think 42 will be reached before the end of the generation.
oVg Errorist
April 23, 2014 at 12:47
Vitas
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:51
Hahaha
Mossel
April 23, 2014 at 12:57
lol that sounds a bit more realistic
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:08
DING!
Umar's Sin
April 23, 2014 at 12:40
I’m actually with Gavin on the WiiU being replaced, I don;t think this console is going to last…As sad as it is to admit, I’ve been fooling myself, Nintendo just aren’t doing enough with this hardware, and it’s sad. Maybe I’m wrong but this feels like the Gamecube all over again
Skyblue
April 23, 2014 at 12:46
Agreed and it’s such a pity. I haven’t purchased one but have played a bit and some of those games are beautifully crafted.
Umar's Sin
April 23, 2014 at 12:47
Man, it’s an excellent system that could’ve been great 🙁 ….
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:09
Going to last? That’s a present continuous, it hasn’t lasted 😛
Skyblue
April 23, 2014 at 13:20
YOH!
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:21
Tehehehe 😉
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:42
I still maintain the PS4 will sell more than the PS2. Yes the XBOX wasn’t around at the time of the PS2 in the beginning but there is population growth to take into consideration. Though that actually seems more like a long shot. I still feel strongly about a Kinectless XBOX One. Get rid of it and sell the console for the same price as the PS4. Or not, I don’t have to explain to the stockholders why sales aren’t up there with the PS4.
oVg Errorist
April 23, 2014 at 12:49
After the last 7 years of the SONY fanboys sprouting that THIS WILL BE THE YEAR FOR SONY, its time to sprout THIS WILL BE SONYs GEN… without a doubt.
CAE9872
April 23, 2014 at 12:56
PS4 = 150m…that is a bold statement! Gavin and the crew need to archive the responses to this and in 6 to 8 years time haul it out for comparison purposes.
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:57
Hahaha, those that come closest gets a free LG tshirt.
CAE9872
April 23, 2014 at 13:52
Should be enough time for me to go up a size…
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 14:07
6-8 years delivery time though…
CAE9872
April 23, 2014 at 14:19
So you reckon I should bank on 2 sizes…
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 14:23
That would be wise 😛
CAE9872
April 23, 2014 at 12:43
I don’t see this gen surpassing last gen…too many distractions in the way with PC, tablets, new hardware from likes of Amazon, etc potentially shattering the happy eco-system currently in place. And I still see Apple taking a stab at this in one way or another (especially now that Jobs is gone and he was never a fan of Apple going gaming).
So my predictions:
PS4 = 80m
XOne = 72m
WiiU = 20m => agreed it will be replaced sooner rather than later.
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:46
Well if I check how well you are doing on superbru I might have to agree.
CAE9872
April 23, 2014 at 12:54
whahahaha…this is true. The ironic thing is I don’t follow rugby at ALL…am no rugby fan and hence don’t even watch a game. However, I am also in a couple of Formula One pools – needless to say I am virtually bottom!
So make of all that what you will…my vote? I am going to be very wrong for pure reason I follow gaming news closely. Too much info is sometimes a bad thing.
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:56
O_o you don’t follow rugby but you are third on the log. I am Jack’s wasted life.
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:18
He’s nearly as lucky at randomly picking winners as that octopus was with the soccer (SOCCER!) world cup. 😀
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:19
RIP, in this case meaning, rest in Paul? 0-o
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:20
Only if Paul is a girl’s name.
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:21
Rolls in pantry?
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 13:20
I heard it was the toughest calamari to chew ever
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:23
And coming from you that’s something, last thing I heard you chewed through a kilo of some guy’s rump over the weekend *RUNS
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 13:32
Hahahahahaha XD
CAE9872
April 23, 2014 at 13:22
That’s my double
Skyblue
April 23, 2014 at 12:45
2 billion reasons for me backing Oculus Rift to sell gazzilions, just to annoy the Emperor.
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 12:57
Heretic.
Viking Of Science
April 23, 2014 at 12:59
In case of Heresy
Skyblue
April 23, 2014 at 13:04
MISSION COMPLETE
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:10
H word user 0-o
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:12
Quiet non-respected individual.
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:12
Is that you outside the provincial offices now?
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:14
I have to fling poop somewhere?
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:16
I’m waiting for them to start. They are bloody loud…
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 12:57
You’re all wrong. 30. I counted.
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 12:58
Billion?
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 12:59
No. I can’t count that high. I assume anyway, not that keen to try.
(The red dots on the header image :D)
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 13:00
You work from home don’t you?
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:03
I wish. NO PANTS!
Hammersteyn
April 23, 2014 at 13:23
NO PANTS!
* Tosses pants in bosses office
Admiral Chief in Space
April 23, 2014 at 13:44
Next week, I shall be trolling Lagz pantsless!
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:07
It’s the last generation of consoles, make my words!
Skyblue
April 23, 2014 at 13:09
Make them into what exactly? :p
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:09
Into a sentence that marks sense yo!
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:09
Into what? Can’t I just break your words instead? It’s more fun for me.
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:10
Sorry, someone else got there before you…
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:13
No. I see what you’re doing. Not falling into some kind of “that’s what she said” or related trap.
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:14
HAHAHA! You see my PS? 😛
Alien Emperor Trevor
April 23, 2014 at 13:16
I did after refreshing heh.
Wincethis
April 23, 2014 at 13:17
😉 You know me so well 😛
Brady miaau
April 23, 2014 at 13:17
ok, E+