The International 5 prize pool prediction and comparison

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Valve’s annual compendium, a concept introduced prior to the The International 2, has seen growth within competitive prize pools like none other. The concept has been visited in other Valve-sanctioned tournaments such as Counter-Strike, but nothing compares to Dota 2.

The money tree is what we call a compendium and for a measly $10 this little booklet offers rewards based on amount of money you spend. The International 2 in 2013 saw a prize pool of over $2.5 million, being blown completely out the water by The International 4 in 2014 with a prize pool upwards of $10 million. This year Valve stepped it up, offering more incentive and at the moment, with just under two weeks left, the prize pool is sitting pretty at $16.6 million.

Let’s compare

As mentioned above Valve have added a wealth of new cosmetic content and this has brought in the big spenders. Resident statistician and Dota 2 fanatic Matthew “Cyborgmatt” Bailey has once again kept a prize pool tracker where we’re able to compare and predict the final prize pool.

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As seen by the graph where the 2014 prize pool hit a steady slope, the comparison shows a small bump around day 35. This is because of the release of new content, which had been promised ages ago, and new players purchasing compendiums to reap the rewards. From day 35 to 50 we see a similar plateau, but once again new content brings about a small bump and with a similar trend we may event hit the $17 million mark.

Graph2

The next graph shows the amount of money spent on specific days, which is an interesting trend as we see days relating to “pay day” spiking even higher since the release of the compendium. The same correlation can be drawn to the first graph where days of “Immortal Treasure” releases brought about a spike in compendium activity. This proves once again the power of crowd funding (in a sense) and the fantastic model that Valve have built.

Will this revive Dota 2?

I must preface this with the fact that this is my personal opinion, but I’m sure some might feel the same way. It’s no secret that Dota 2 has fallen off the top of the eSports list in the past few years. Many personalities have stated that the people at the top burnt out and couldn’t keep up with the pace and hype, but that’s not really the real issue here.

While millions of people still pump funds into tournaments such as The International, the small tournaments haven’t lived up to their former hype. They have been replaced by an influx of Counter-Strike: GO tournaments and the ever-dominant League of Legends LCS. Although the International, in my opinion, is still the biggest eSports event of the year, the question is will this revive the game?

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Last Updated: July 16, 2015

Kyle Wolmarans

Critical Hit's esports guy. I talk about esports and drink whiskey. I also write and cast for elsewhere - but my work here is independent of that.

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