New console generation launches mark a turning point for consumers – they’re most likely to switch gaming brands upon upgrading consoles. So, will COD become of a relic of the past? Some analysts believe so.
According to analysts at Cowen & Company, upcoming Bungie shooter Destiny could sell 10 million units during its lifetime. Combined with Hearthstone, the titles could make up Activision-Blizzard’s losses from the declines in the COD series. The analysts explain that COD sales were down 26% and Ghosts was poorly reviewed and received on the market – this could be a sign of franchise fatigue.
Heading into 2014, the franchise is likely to face competition from four to six other shooter genre titles, including heavyweight next-gen IPs Titanfall (EA) and the company’s own Destiny.
We are very concerned that the first full year of a new console cycle is the most likely time for consumers to switch gaming ‘brands’, and with several new choices available, we think CoD is particularly vulnerable. We are reducing our FY14 title estimate to 16 million units lifetime, down from peak levels of ~25 million units in 2010-12.
COD certainly has some stiff competition ahead of it. With games such as Titanfall and Destiny on the horizon, not to mention MMO third-person shooter The Division, there will be plenty of options for gamers to shoot things in all new environments. While COD may have gained a certain amount of brand loyalty, it might not be enough to keep it going through the next generation.
Plenty of people love to hate COD. However, it certainly has dominated the FPS market this generation. Those are some pretty big guns to fill – will Titanfall and Destiny become the next big thing?
Last Updated: February 5, 2014