Home Gaming Will Kinect sell over 3 million units this Christmas? I think it will

Will Kinect sell over 3 million units this Christmas? I think it will

1 min read

So Microsoft, well Aaron Greenberg, came out earlier this year and said they expected to sell around 3 million Kinects over this silly season. Some people at the time scoffed at that calling Kinect little more than an Eyetoy.

Now some respected analysts have come out and stated they also expect Microsoft to sell over 3 million copies and yet the same Internet crowd is still scoffing about it being an Eyetoy.

So the question really is whether or not it will make that magical 3 million figure or not and the answer is simple. I see no reason why it won’t to be honest, the 4G Kinect bundle is priced very well for the casual gamer and there are far more than 3 million of those.

And that is the market that is being heavily targeted this year by Kinect. In most first world countries Microsoft will be spending millions in TV/Movie advertising to make sure that every Tom, Dick and Sally knows about the Kinect and knows that it’s a videogame that their kids will love and that will make their kids move.

Is it just an upgraded Eyetoy? Well yes, but that doesn’t make it a bad thing. The Move is simply an upgraded Wiimote and the Xbox 360 is just a PC in a box, the PS3 is just an upgraded PS2 and Blu-Ray is just an upgraded DVD.

Upgrading things and making them better is what the industry is all about.

I Kinect sells less than 2.5 million by the middle of January I will personally be very shocked.

Last Updated: September 21, 2010


  1. Alki

    September 21, 2010 at 08:54

    Gavin Mannion: Shocked????? did you c the price tag on that thing????if that didnt shock you i dont know wot will!!!


  2. Gavin Mannion

    September 21, 2010 at 09:25

    R1999… that’s cheaper than every console so while it’s way higher than I would have liked I can’t say it’s a complete shocker.


  3. RSA-Ace

    September 21, 2010 at 09:29

    I’m gonna say less than 1 million. I can’t see 1 in every 40 xbox users buying something so expensive. Remember those total sales numbers will be inflated a bit due to people having multiple consoles.


  4. RSA-Ace

    September 21, 2010 at 09:37

    The fact that you comparing the price of an accessory to a console makes it a complete shocker.


  5. Gavin Mannion

    September 21, 2010 at 09:38

    I expect at least 50% of Kinect sales to be to new users.


  6. Gavin Mannion

    September 21, 2010 at 09:48

    A brand new Wii right now is R2499 and whether we like it or not the thing is selling well.

    The Xbox 360 4G with Kinect is R3599. So the question is will people be convinced to spend an extra R1100. None of us know for sure but I am guessing that answer is yes. Remember like I said in the article this isn’t being targeted at existing Xbox 360 owners.


  7. Fox1

    September 21, 2010 at 10:12

    I’m gonna say 3 mil too but don’t let that price in SA deter you. In the States is where it’s going to be sold 50% cheaper than here while we have to pay 2 tons.


  8. RSA-Ace

    September 21, 2010 at 10:13

    Yeah I suppose I’m not taking new user’s into account. It’s really hard to predict.

    I guess it could reach 2 million based on new users (4GB X360 with Kinect).


  9. RSA-Ace

    September 21, 2010 at 10:15

    The thing is these ‘new users’ already have a Wii or that’s how I see it (I know I’m wrong based on the monthly Wii sales though).

    I find it hard to think outside of a ‘hardcore’ gamer. So I’m generally wrong about these kind of things…


  10. Aussious is Kinected

    September 21, 2010 at 10:25

    I was watching Oprah and Jammie Oliver was on going on about changing America’s eating habits like he did for the UK, that’s when it hit me the genius behind Kinect! I mean right now all the focus in the west is on healthy living and keeping active thats why the Wii is so successful and thats what MS is also after. Kinect Sport, Joyride, Kinect Adventures all aimed straight at the Oprah masses! What I can’t figure out is why SONY is pushing 3D TV’s so agressively and neglecting( Move) what could pontentially be a Gold mine!


  11. RSA-Ace

    September 21, 2010 at 10:28

    Well yes it’s 50% cheaper than here if you convert. But that means nothing. You have to relate it to the price of consoles.

    Xbox 4GB here: R2399.99
    Xbox 4GB USA: $199.99

    Kinect here: R1999.99
    Kinect USA: $149.99

    Ratio here: 0.83:1
    Ratio USA: 0.75:1

    Thus it seems more expensive for us to buy Kinect.


  12. Fred

    September 21, 2010 at 10:37

    Go and read Eurogamer’s preview of Kinect Sonic Riders if you want to see FAIL of EPIC proportions . 3 million times that and the world will surely end.


  13. Hayted

    September 21, 2010 at 10:45

    There have been a few articles about retailers saying that the Kinect Pre-order is going very well indeed. Were those articles on Lazygamer? Cannot be sure but I think it will do surprisingly well. Obviously we will not know until Christmas has come and gone as well as launch day in November.


  14. Gavin Mannion

    September 21, 2010 at 10:55

    I don’t recall posting those to be honest, but I am not surprised.


  15. Fox1

    September 21, 2010 at 11:05

    Thats a good point you make. Just the other day I was reading a comment from a local PC distributor that managed to secure a whole bunch of good from at the weak value of the $ and then he passed the savings onto dealers.


  16. Mr Peace

    September 21, 2010 at 13:21

    Balls!! If kinect sells 3 million over the christmas season I will personally lick Assious’s balls. :sick:


  17. Mr Peace

    September 21, 2010 at 13:47

    Assious… you watch Oprah? Dear god man… Be a MAN!


  18. Nick de Bruyne

    September 21, 2010 at 14:57

    In that future possible case, pics or it didn’t happen.


  19. AC!D

    September 21, 2010 at 16:22

    I predict Kinect will sell a million over the holidays and if the rumours are true and 3DS is launching in the States in Novemeber i dont even think it will reach a million.

    Kinect will tank in Japan because Move and 3DS are launching there in November. So unless the yanks buy at least 2.5 million units of Kinect over the holidays i think the predictions of 3 million sales are grossly over exagerated. Most of Europe will be to busy buying GT5 and COD to give a damn about Kinect.

    If im wrong ill be back in this thread to take the heat. I hope Gavin and the rest of the Xbot crew are here to take their licking if they are wrong.

    The sad fact is that you guys are treating Move and Kinect as a new console launch while the sad reality is that Wii has already penetrated the MC market and Sony and MS are only selling peripherals that add MC functionality. Grossly over priced peripherals in Kinects case.


  20. Mr Peace

    September 21, 2010 at 18:37

    Then it is a bet, if Kinect sells 3 million between 1 December and January 15th, Assious needs only bring his balls.


  21. Aussious

    September 21, 2010 at 18:56

    Aaron Greenberg: Yes Oprah you can only play it stnding up and you don’t need any complicated controls just youre body…
    Oprah: Wow great way to get the whole family off the couch! And guess what, EVERYBODY’S GETTING ONE! (trademark)
    Aaron Greenberg: Yes Oprah we at Microsoft care about America’s health and well being. (evil smile with dollar signs)
    Oprah: Wow this is amizing and you say its available tomorrow nation wide?
    Aaron Greenberg: Yes Oprah tomorrow we take ove- I mean launch Kinect to America and soon the World! Mhwahahahahah!
    Oprah: ….
    Aaron Greenberg: Oh er I’m just so overjoyed that we making America a better healthier place for all (heheh).


  22. Mr Peace

    September 21, 2010 at 19:33

    Sadly, that’s all Microsoft needs to do, involve Oprah and Soccer mom’s around America will gladly buy it. Oprah… never underestimate her!


  23. Gavin Mannion

    September 21, 2010 at 23:01

    That is what I have been trying to say all along but I think the majority of hardcore gamers find it hard to understand that non gamers could well love Kinect even if it’s overpriced and not accurate enough for ‘real’ games


  24. Karl Thomson

    September 21, 2010 at 23:04

    Would MS appealing to the casual gaming audience so heavily be construed as “selling out” in the same way Nintendo did with the Wii initially?


  25. Aussious is Kinected

    September 22, 2010 at 09:26

    The so called “hardcore gamers” need to understand that as long as there are games like Reach,COD, Assassin’s Creed etc that sell bucket loads publishers will continue to pour money in there. What I think trouble most gamers is when their wifes and mothers start playing more on their consoles than they do.


  26. Fox1

    September 22, 2010 at 10:11

    The problem here is that many people underestimate the casual gaming market. That’s how the Wii has gotten number 1 by attending to that sector of the market.

    oh, and also I know plenty of people that bought the xbox just because it looks cooler 😎


  27. Sir James vannie Kaap

    September 22, 2010 at 11:11

    If they market it as an exercise device and invoke the Mighty Oprah, then it will definitely be a must buy for house wives around the world (the Zombified masses of Oprah). However, Oprah does not just endorse anything, and Microsoft would have to make sure that the xbox 360’s hardware woes have been sufficiently dealt with, especially the slim (which at present, seems not to be the case, the internet is crying over overheating reports, disk reading errors and disk ejecting problems).

    Other wise, Oprah will come down hard on it, and Microsoft will feel the wrath of the Goddess! This is probably why Microsoft has not gone the route of Oprah.


  28. Sir James vannie Kaap

    September 22, 2010 at 11:23

    Of course not, and only children would think in such limited ways. I won’t consider Kinect now, but whatever is learnt from it, the mistakes, issues with implementation etc. will benefit a competent gaming giant like Nintendo or even Sony. It’s clear that Sony learnt from Nintendo’s mistakes with the Wii (who in turn learnt from the limitations of the Eye Toy), and produced something quite magical in PS Move. It’s therefore logical to assume that either one of them will learn from Kinect’s mistakes. Kinect has some nice features and there is potential, however at present it does not interest me.

    Since these are businesses, they are hardly “selling out” by expanding their market share, only entitled kids would see it this way. The only real problem I see with casualisation of games is that games become less difficult and less of a challenge, but maybe this will spur those with a competitive streak in them to focus their attention on other hobbies.


  29. Sir James vannie Kaap

    September 22, 2010 at 11:26

    Halo gamer: “F*G A** MOTHER***** Shut Your MOUTH I IS A HARDCORE gAMER!!”

    COD gamer: “Bitch*** n***** cow sucking horse **** I IS A HARDCORE GAMER fool… HEADSHOT!!”

    Assassin’s Creed: “Bloody good show old chap, for I am a Hardcore Gamer!”


  30. Sir James vannie Kaap

    September 22, 2010 at 11:27

    That’s just sad.


  31. Fox1

    September 22, 2010 at 11:33

    LOL I know but thats how to get the mass market best


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