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Carmack: In five years, PC will be ten times as powerful

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Speaking about the future of gaming at a recent Nvidia event, tech guru John Carmack has predicted that PC gaming technology will grow in leaps and bounds over the next five years, leaving consoles eating dust. This, of course, is not really news – and is really just Moore’s Law. Carmack’s predictions are interesting nonetheless.

While it’s difficult to predict how far computing will advance in 30 years, “because we can’t wrap your head around these six or eight orders of magnitude” of advancement, he is able to look at least 5 years in to the future.

“Five years ahead, yeah, we can probably make credible comments about that. You’ll still be able to buy Xbox One or PS4 new five years from now – unquestionably. There will be tons of content developed for that,” he said.

“We’ll have 4K resolution displays on tablets and HMDs, and we’ll have another order of magnitude pretty straightforward on there with Moore’s law. GPUs are great at turning transistors into performance and we’ll have ten times the performance. It means that you can probably run that triple 4K display at double the frame-rate from one GPU. That starts looking pretty impressive.”

Triple 4K in five years? That makes next-gen consoles’ sub 1080p sound even decidedly unimpressive. Microsoft and Sony both think this next generation will be a long one, but I’m not so sure. Where consoles usually launch and are visually more impressive than the average PC, that’s different this time around. Right out of the gate the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 don;t seem able to match the performance you’d get out of a mid-level PC.

Read the entire 6 page transcript with John Carmack, Tim Sweeney and Johan Andersson at Eurogamer.

Last Updated: November 11, 2013

110 Comments

  1. ToshZA

    November 11, 2013 at 10:10

    Sorry, but I have to:

    MASTER RACE FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      November 11, 2013 at 10:15

      Agreed but console to PC ports will even be less impressive.

      Reply

      • ToshZA

        November 11, 2013 at 10:19

        And vice versa. The gap between the two will just keep getting bigger and bigger.

        Reply

        • Wayne

          November 11, 2013 at 10:20

          like the gap between someones teeth

          Reply

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 10:20

            Only in Cape Town or Eldo’s man. 😉

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 10:23

            Like this fork I found at the office last year:

          • Wayne

            November 11, 2013 at 10:24

            They can eet apples on the other side of the fence

          • NostalgicMossel

            November 11, 2013 at 10:50

            That’s the most metal fork I’ve seen in my life.

          • FoxOneZA

            November 11, 2013 at 10:57

            A Spock Fork. Now say that really fast.

          • Wayne

            November 11, 2013 at 11:00

            for Fork sakes

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:02

            It must be tworrible using that thing.

  2. Wesley Fick

    November 11, 2013 at 10:14

    Triple 4K is currently possible (not completely playable) with a single GPU, but you’re stuck to 30Hz for all of them.

    Reply

    • CypherGate

      November 11, 2013 at 10:15

      with a nice hefty pricetag

      Reply

    • Uberutang

      November 11, 2013 at 10:22

      30 fps like a peasant. No thanks 🙂

      Reply

    • Johan du Preez

      November 11, 2013 at 12:37

      Very true it struggles on my 2×7970 crossfire.

      Reply

  3. Hammersteyn

    November 11, 2013 at 10:16

    My shiny new Ps4 will look like a WII compared to the PC in a years time. At least we finally broke the 1080p barrier…. in 2013….. *sob*

    Reply

    • ToshZA

      November 11, 2013 at 10:19

      *Sony broke the 1080p barrier*

      Fixed it for you.

      Reply

      • Otto_ki

        November 11, 2013 at 10:28

        The 1080p barrier has been broken years ago via the master race 😛

        Reply

        • Wayne

          November 11, 2013 at 10:28

          All this only made us broke!

          Reply

          • Otto_ki

            November 11, 2013 at 10:30

            You merely adopted being broke, I was born in it, molded by it…I did not have a graphics card until I was 21!

          • Wayne

            November 11, 2013 at 10:32

            Here have some 4K soup!

          • Otto_ki

            November 11, 2013 at 10:33

            I really hope they look good without killing my darling PC

          • NostalgicMossel

            November 11, 2013 at 10:49

            LOL!!

      • Hammersteyn

        November 11, 2013 at 10:37

        LOL

        Reply

  4. Admiral Chief in 1986

    November 11, 2013 at 10:21

    Hehehe

    Reply

  5. Umar Moe Moe

    November 11, 2013 at 10:21

    Stupid Console PR shot themselves in the foot by comparing consoles to PC’s…Now there is this whole dumb ass war going on. Wake up people, there is no console war..There is no PC VS Consoles…No Us Vs Them..There is only hope..hope that Justin Bieber’s stomach get’s better #StayStrongJustin

    Reply

    • Admiral Chief in 1986

      November 11, 2013 at 10:22

      Better, or worse?

      Reply

      • Umar Moe Moe

        November 11, 2013 at 10:23

        Better apparently, can’t believe #StayStrongJustin is trending on Twitter

        Reply

        • ToshZA

          November 11, 2013 at 10:24

          Look on the bright side, now he can spit on his fans from both ends. 😀

          Reply

          • Umar Moe Moe

            November 11, 2013 at 10:26

            LOOOOOOL funny but evenly disgusting

  6. Admiral Chief in 1986

    November 11, 2013 at 10:22

    I don’t have to worry about PCs.

    BUT, watching the PS and XB fight, just sooo much fun!
    http://d24w6bsrhbeh9d.cloudfront.net/photo/av0z4BM_460sa.gif

    Reply

    • Hammersteyn

      November 11, 2013 at 10:38

      • Admiral Chief in 1986

        November 11, 2013 at 10:44

        LOL

        Reply

      • Unavengedavo(aka. IceCreamMan)

        November 11, 2013 at 10:46

        Console Wars The Musical still describes it the best 😛

        Reply

        • Admiral Chief in 1986

          November 11, 2013 at 10:47

          Hehehe

          Reply

          • Unavengedavo(aka. IceCreamMan)

            November 11, 2013 at 10:50

            Who can disagree with a pretty redhead saying that PC is better? 😛

          • Admiral Chief in 1986

            November 11, 2013 at 10:51

            DAT PRETTY!

  7. UltimateNinjaPandaDudeGuy

    November 11, 2013 at 10:23

    Can people maybe stop saying this every few years please?

    I am a PC gamer all the way, but hearing this very obvious statement made every year or so is getting really old.

    Reply

  8. Wayne

    November 11, 2013 at 10:26

    Remember we can upgrade the hard drive now!

    Reply

    • Kensei Seraph

      November 11, 2013 at 10:34

      I’ve always been able to upgrade my hard drive. 😛

      Reply

  9. Fnuik

    November 11, 2013 at 10:30

    The thing is, how much will it cost to keep you pc being able to handle all the new technology? And yes I know a lot of you have 4 year old pc’s still being able to play the new games, but when the technology starts developing as fast as this guy says, 4 year will become 1 year.

    Reply

    • Kromas

      November 11, 2013 at 10:34

      PC gamers generally are not the same as Apple hipsters. When AMD announces a new chipset we rejoice not for the new chipset but for the fact that their old flagship chip drops in price like a stone. Consoles can’t really do that since games are not backwards compatible.Hell I only upgrade when a new announcement is made. That is your cue to launch a new CPU Intel!

      Reply

      • Wayne

        November 11, 2013 at 10:37

        But they rejoice when a slimmer play-station is announced!

        Reply

    • SaintsRowNigri

      November 11, 2013 at 10:44

      As a lot of people can attest to, I am a console fan boy. BUT, a few month I upgraded my display card to a GeForce – GT630 4GB Graphics Card. It cost me R1300.00. I loaded up Skyrim on PC, and I’ll be honest, I feel like I am playing a different game altogether. My base rig I got year and a half ago.
      The thing is, with some decent planning, you can make a PC stretch for a good few years before the next upgrade is due. And if you do upgrade, it doesn’t always need to be at ball busting prices either.

      Reply

      • Fnuik

        November 11, 2013 at 10:48

        I here what you are saying. I too used to be a multi-platform player, until both pc and ps3 was stolen during a robbery (Guess witch one got replaced). What I am trying to say is even though the tech keeps getting better and better, it is not nearly developing as fast as this guy says. If what he says is true then upgrading will become a more frequent thing.

        Reply

        • SaintsRowNigri

          November 11, 2013 at 10:53

          If you want to, you can upgrade on an almost monthly basis right now, if that is your thing. But, whilst tech might grow exponentially, devs are still going to have to develop for a base line machine. Or rather, specs that will cover as much of the populace as possible. So I won’t be too bothered about that.
          As to the robbery: I feel your pain. I got my Xbox and PC stolen too a while back…

          Reply

          • Fnuik

            November 11, 2013 at 10:59

            “devs are still going to have to develop for a base line machine”

            You make a good point. But that can also be seen as saying all the new technology will basically be under used. Like 4k television sets

          • SaintsRowNigri

            November 11, 2013 at 11:19

            I personally think it is going to be exactly like it is today. You are going to have the guy that wants to run Crysis 15 with all the bells and whistles, and he will be able to. And the guy that’s happy just to play, even if it is with mid to low specs, will also be happy to play…

  10. Matthew Holliday

    November 11, 2013 at 10:39

    I for one welcome the time when hardware is more advanced than the software.
    i would love for my graphics card to last longer than a year and a half.

    Reply

    • Wayne

      November 11, 2013 at 10:42

      We are starting to see that with smaller projects , if you take the raspberry pi as a sample it can replace a lot of custom electronics that only leaves the software to do the part. Maybe one day on the Higher end we will see that

      Reply

  11. Mabenito

    November 11, 2013 at 10:41

    Even if it’s 200x powerful, its not about resolutions (right?), it’s about the games. Let’s talk about; PC vs Consoles vs Games.

    Reply

    • SaintsRowNigri

      November 11, 2013 at 10:45

      Not only resolution but performance as well…

      Reply

    • Uberutang

      November 11, 2013 at 11:22

      PC has far more games than all the consoles combined and it is 100% backwards compatible.

      Reply

      • ToshZA

        November 11, 2013 at 11:22

        It really isn’t actually. The amount of games I can’t play on Windows 7 is shocking.

        Reply

        • SaintsRowNigri

          November 11, 2013 at 11:23

          Dual boot then?

          Reply

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:26

            All that effort man. I’m way too lazy for that, haha. I have plenty games to play anyways, but sometimes I just want to load up an older game. I live with it.

          • Gr8_Balls_o_Fire

            November 11, 2013 at 12:37

            I am too lazy to go and learn about what graphics card to put where and open the PC and the RAM and install this driver and that driver and what else did I miss?

            I’m guessing that’s why consoles are so popular. Not better.

            Also, couch gaming.

        • Uberutang

          November 11, 2013 at 11:24

          Really? I have not had the issue. At all. At worse I had to load a older OS vm, but I could play.

          Reply

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:26

            Yeah you see, you need extra software to be able to play. It’s not fully backwards compatible.

        • Kromas

          November 11, 2013 at 11:29

          Dosbox FTW! Also the key word is virtualization. And if that fails someone will make a web based version of your favorite old game.

          Reply

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:30

            It doesn’t help my disks lying in a box though. And I’m just not interested in getting a vm running. I just want it to work. Consoles have spoiled me a little. 😛

          • Uberutang

            November 11, 2013 at 11:40

            So how is that going for you ? Have you tried a PS1 or PS2 game in PS3?
            With PC you at least have the option, and really to run a VM is nothing. Take 5 mins to play. (if you wanted to)

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:41

            I don’t have a PS3, and if I want to play old games on a console, I just plug that console in, put the disk in, and play.

          • Fnuik

            November 11, 2013 at 11:53

            As a matter of fact I have played PS1 and PS2 games on my PS3. I can even Play ps1 games on my PsVita.
            Just the other day I bought myself theme hospital on my ps3. So yes, we do have the option for backwards compatibility

          • Uberutang

            November 11, 2013 at 11:54

            Not the same disk version you bought 12 years ago though! You had to rebuy (or get it on PSN plus, that you paid for). It as not the exact same game disk that you used.

          • Fnuik

            November 11, 2013 at 11:57

            well ok, if you want to start getting technical… 🙂

          • Kromas

            November 11, 2013 at 12:19

            Can perfectly understand that. I prefer to tweak and tweak and tweak till the game runs optimal so I am quite used to messing around with stuff. I recently got an old game called Septerra Core working on my system and that was hell but quite fun when it finally worked 100%

    • Sarelseemonster

      November 11, 2013 at 11:54

      Sadly or not sadly, depending on the camp you are in…. PC obliterate the consoles in games. You have far wider selections at cheaper prices. MMO’s, RTS’s, FPS, TPS, Fighting games, Sport games, SIMULATORS on almost anything imaginable, then games one can’t define relay – Mods like Garry’s Mod… etc. Physics thats more impressive, massive scale to maps and players, Local Servers….. seriously. If it’s about games then PC takes even more of a lead.
      Both Consoles and PC’s have their place but imho, if Steambox gets done right, the PC will eat into the console space big time.

      Reply

  12. Unavengedavo(aka. IceCreamMan)

    November 11, 2013 at 10:42

    I read somewhere that they have made really impressive progress with quantum computing. As far as I understand it(which is very, very limited), data could be transfered from one point to another within an instant using quantum teleportation.

    Reply

    • ToshZA

      November 11, 2013 at 10:50

      Only across short distances, after a certain distance the quantum data “breaks up” – and boosting it causes it to do the same thing. They are working on transmitting using quantum physics via satellites atm, but its only in its infancy and a long way away. Only 2 scientists are currently working on that field of research. One’s in Europe, the other in China. They’re testing data transfers between their labs.

      Reply

      • Unavengedavo(aka. IceCreamMan)

        November 11, 2013 at 10:55

        I know that, but if it is inside a computer then the distance would not really matter that much. I also read somewhere the some scientist have been able to achive 143 km with quantum teleportation.

        It’s unfortunate that if they could teleport a human, then they would have to clone you at the destination and send your consciousness to the clone and then basically kill your original body :O

        Reply

    • Johan du Preez

      November 11, 2013 at 12:46

      It already happens on the AMD and INTEL CPU’s, the data travels so fast that scientist now say that it teleports to where it needs to be.

      Reply

  13. TiMsTeR1033

    November 11, 2013 at 10:45

    This is all just SPECULATION people…. Might not be the case at all… Besides it is about the games!

    Reply

    • Sir Rants-a-Lot Llew

      November 11, 2013 at 11:07

      Not really speculation. Look how far PC graphics have come in the last 5 years. If you apply that same rate of growth, native 4k @ 60FPS+ doesn’t seem very far fetched

      Reply

      • Unavengedavo(aka. IceCreamMan)

        November 11, 2013 at 11:10

        Xbox would still have to upscale from 720p 😛

        Reply

        • Kromas

          November 11, 2013 at 11:26

          They should try to update their drivers. 😛

          Reply

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:28

            If they hired Jason Statham, they’d never need another driver. 😛

          • Kromas

            November 11, 2013 at 11:40

            Well played sir. 🙂

      • TiMsTeR1033

        November 11, 2013 at 11:36

        I know… I was trying to ignore those facts. I don’t want my ps4 to look ancient when I get it.

        Reply

    • FoxOneZA

      November 11, 2013 at 11:12

      A Radeon R9 270x 2gb GFX card costs around R2500. That card, coupled with 8gb DDR3 memory, the same DDR3 RAM that powers the X1, will run BF4 at 1080/60fps at Ultra settings. Wait until next year when DDR4 memory and GDDR6 launches 😉

      Reply

  14. FoxOneZA

    November 11, 2013 at 11:00

    4k/120fps or GTFO.

    Reply

    • ToshZA

      November 11, 2013 at 11:00

      2x Titans or GTFO

      Reply

      • FoxOneZA

        November 11, 2013 at 11:01

        2x780Ti or GTFO

        Reply

        • Wayne

          November 11, 2013 at 11:02

          Steak or GTFO

          Reply

        • ToshZA

          November 11, 2013 at 11:03

          That’ll do for 60fps at 4k res. But you want 120fps. For that, you need TITANS!

          https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/3514815744/hF237DAB8/

          Reply

          • FoxOneZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:04

            Hehehe…

          • Sir Rants-a-Lot Llew

            November 11, 2013 at 11:06

            The 780Ti beats the Titan. It’s a brand new launch.

          • FoxOneZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:08

            And cheaper too.

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:08

            Didn’t spot the “Ti”. hmmm. Research time. BYE!

          • Matthew Holliday

            November 11, 2013 at 11:34

            Ti is nvidia code for “fucked up overpowered”
            Ti is a word of power

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:37

            660ti says hi.

          • Matthew Holliday

            November 11, 2013 at 11:39

            My 550ti is hating life atm.
            Ghosts and BF4 are bullies.

          • ToshZA

            November 11, 2013 at 11:41

            My 560 is having the same problem in BF4. 🙁

      • Weanerdog

        November 11, 2013 at 11:16

        Need 4

        Reply

        • ToshZA

          November 11, 2013 at 11:21

          Diminishing returns beyond 2 of them. It’s a waste really. Also, seems the 780Ti is better than a Titan. Who knew?

          Reply

  15. Uberutang

    November 11, 2013 at 11:12

    I would argue that some systems is all ready 2-3 x as ‘powerful’ as ‘next gen’.

    Did some performance graphs this weekend. Running BF4 on ultra at 60fps at (only) 1080p and my CPU and GPU’s are never ‘stressed’ above 50% usage.

    The frostbite engine is nicely optimised, so that helps, but in essence I can run 2 instances of BF4 at ultra/60/1080 on my ‘current gen’ PC.

    And no this is not a 50 000 Rand Titan monster, it is a 2011 build with a few upgrades along the way with some Overclocking on the i5 CPU. Nothing terribly fancy.

    Reply

    • FoxOneZA

      November 11, 2013 at 11:19

      I’m also running a similar mid-spec setup and I never really bought the system with the intention of playing games but hey it schools my PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii U. After playing at 1080p, anything less looks fuzzy no matter how much AA and AF.

      Reply

    • Kromas

      November 11, 2013 at 11:25

      We must not be playing the same BF4. So optimized it crashes my pc. 😛

      Reply

  16. Tarisma

    November 11, 2013 at 11:13

    Sword art online out in 2025

    backing it

    Reply

    • Kensei Seraph

      November 11, 2013 at 11:20

      If I have anything to say about it, and I don’t, it’ll come out sooner.
      But with a safer helmet.

      Reply

      • Tarisma

        November 11, 2013 at 11:49

        safer helmet is a must

        Reply

  17. Weanerdog

    November 11, 2013 at 11:24

    I call crap. 4K on a tablet, what battery are they going to use, what display? Price would be prohibitive. Heat would be a problem. New Laptop graphic cards are running at about 85 degrees. Also computers are generally driven forward by gaming performance and that is drive is normally held in check by consoles, sure the hardware gets better optimization but is still held somewhat in check.

    Reply

    • Matthew Holliday

      November 11, 2013 at 11:30

      power consumption was a big focus for companies like nvidia 2 years ago, and AMD are focussing their efforts on that right now.
      if you compare AMDs current cards to the current nvidia or their older cards, the power consumption is ridiculously low.

      I think its safe to assume that most companies are concerned with power consumption options and taking steps to deal with it.

      reduce power consumption would reduce battery use and heat things.

      Reply

      • Weanerdog

        November 11, 2013 at 11:51

        He is talking about 4K res on a tablet, How long does a laptop battery last running 4K – 4 hours maybe and that is on the newest of those GPUs and the battery is how big. Batteries are a pretty established tech so you are not going to get a lot more juice than what you are currently capable of so this would need a totally new tech in batteries to get you the power or totally new tech in GPUs to be that efficient. Look it can happen but the time frame seems ambitious. I also don’t honestly know if it is actually possible, with the naked eye, to tell the difference between 1080 and 4 k on a tablet.

        Reply

        • Matthew Holliday

          November 11, 2013 at 12:30

          Depends on the size of the tablet I guess, but no, i dont think theres much difference on a 10″ screen.

          I guess Idd about battery time, they may just say “well thats how much youre gna get. end of story.” like they did with Cellphones.
          If you had told me a few years ago that my phone would get 2 days battery life, I would have raged.
          Theyr moving us towards secondary battery packs and stuff.

          Reply

  18. ALKi1234

    November 11, 2013 at 11:30

    Console aren’t going anywhere. The master race will wait for SONY and M$ to say when what happens next.

    Reply

    • Wayne

      November 11, 2013 at 11:51

      Soon Samsung will decide with Google , The new kids on the block

      Reply

  19. Xelus

    November 11, 2013 at 12:20

    To be quite frank, technology advances way quicker than this, maybe for us here in SA it would take 5 – 10 years yes, cuz this place is so far behind, it always looks as if we are in the stone age.

    With the rate technology advances now, 1 – 2 years tops, and we would already have hardware that would match that or better. Look at what hardware we have now, look at the type of things that are released now already.

    Absolutely bonkers! XD

    Reply

  20. Mikel Reborn

    November 12, 2013 at 20:21

    Those 4k TV’s have a processor to take 1080p and turn it into 4k ! I’m pretty sure you next gen will still look sexy in 4k with that 4k TV, that Samsung 4k looks way better than that Sony at this point in 4k technology.

    Reply

  21. Reed Hiland

    November 12, 2013 at 22:07

    “Where consoles usually launch and are visually more impressive than the average PC”

    Well that’s not true, Perfect Dark Zero for 360 didn’t look as good as Doom 3 for the PC. Both were released in the same year early in the consoles life cycle. Game’s will most likely keep getting better as developers learn to make use of everything the consoles have to offer.

    PC master race tho, so I don’t care what really happens to the consoles.

    Reply

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