Stewart Wolpin of Digital Tech Consulting was been talking about Blu-Ray and has put his cards on the table and said that Blu-Ray will not replace DVD’s in either the retail or rental movie segments.
To be more specific he doesn’t expect Blu-Ray to hold more than 30% of the market in 5 years time, so it won’t be a complete failure but it won’t do what DVD did for movies.
The reasoning behind it is that higher definition has never been a major motivator for people to pick up a format, just look at the failings of SACD, S-VHS and DVD-Audio as examples.
However there is a flip side to this, while higher definition isn’t the biggest motivator, wanting to get the most out of your new HD-TV may well be… That is something that hasn’t been part of the equation in previous years…
So will Blu-Ray ever become truly mass market and replace DVD? I highly doubt it but it may just happen.
Last Updated: May 16, 2008