I love analysts – professional guessers, if you like. They sift through graphs, sales data, industry goings-on , poring over every minute detail – and then make stuff up. Back in primary school, we called such people â€œliars,â€ but now that we’re all grown up they have a much nicer designation. My own ranting aside, analyst reports are always interesting – they consistently contain some sparkly gem hidden in their mass of conjecture.
Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan’s infamous resident videogame prognosticator has compiled yet another report; this time declaring that – as a result of Microsoft’s Japanese failure and Sony’s HD video standard domination – Sony will climb to the middle of the heap, finally beating out its American competition with regards to consoles sold.
The devil though is in the details – When does he expect them to take the lead?
"We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015. Although Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan.â€
"By the end of 2011 (the extent of our current forecast), we see Nintendo ‘winning’ the console war by maintaining its share, with 48% of this market. We expect Sony to pull even with Microsoft, each with 26% market share. Notwithstanding the projected finish, we truly believe that all three manufacturers should be considered ‘winners’, with Microsoft selling twice as many Xbox 360s as Xboxes and building a robust Xbox Live business, and with the other two companies generating significant profits from their respective shares."
Come 2015, I don’t think anyone will care about which console places where. To be honest you shouldn’t care RIGHT NOW. Just keep on playing the games you enjoy playing, group hug, and get over it. All three are winners. Michael Pachter said it, so it has to be true.
Read a little more from Pachter’s report for just how he expects Nintendo to keep it’s stranglehold on the console market.
Source : Industrygamers
Last Updated: June 30, 2009