High expectations for GTA V sales

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As more details and pretty pictures come out about GTA V, more people are jumping on the hype train. Who can resist it? Well, apparently, sales expectations are also jumping on that train – estimates are coming in ridiculously high.

Analysts are taking bets on sales figures, but I have to wonder if they’re getting a bit carried away: they are estimating that we’ll see sales of 15-25 million units… in the first year!  Yup, they’re even estimating 13 million at launch.

Look, GTA has been a successful series and I’m sure it will do well, especially with how cool it looks.  However, Borderlands 2 has been fantastic and ‘only’ shipped 7 million units, and BioShock Infinite has shipped 4 million.  So, they’re expecting more units to ship at launch than have been shipped for these two blockbusters put together?  Minecraft, which has been number one on Xbox Live essentially since it launched, plus all the people who have bought it for PC, is currently sitting at 11 535 193 purchased copies (oh, and in the last 24 hours 13.5k people bought it).  I just don’t see GTA V outselling at launch what has taken Minecraft years.

I’m happy that there are high expectations for GTA.  I’m just worried that setting the bar that high will mean it becomes a ‘failure’ if it ‘only’ sells 5-10 million copies in the first year.  What are your expectations?  Are you all aboard the hype train?

Last Updated: July 31, 2013

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